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Bond bull market 2023-2024
Good morning / afternoon. I hope that your summer was mild, your fall was cool and full of vibrant, autumn colors, and that you have a good coat for winter!"
Read MoreBond market selloff WAY overdone; buy bonds (even with duration), with both hands
Good morning / afternoon. I hope that your spring is going well and that you've been enjoying the song-birds, the blooms, the flowers and the vibrant colors."Spring work is going on with joyful enthusiasm." - John Muir"You can...
Read MoreBalance Sheet Recession is on the way
Good morning / afternoon. I hope that your summer went well and that you're enjoying the cooler weather and the beautiful, leaf color this fall. "Fall has always been my favorite season. The time when everything bursts with its last...
Read MoreFOMO is fueling Inflation-Extrapolation Hysteria
Good morning / evening. I hope that this spring season is going well for you and your loved ones. The volatility in the world seems to continue unabated in nearly every category, yes? Well...as the young folks say, "it is what it is".....
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The Kiss of Debt
Good morning / evening. I hope that this winter season is going well for you and your loved ones. I am going to do the best I can in this edition to comment on capital markets and provide actionable ideas with clear direction so as to...
Read MoreTwelve things to consider in 2021
Greetings. I sure hope that you and your loved ones are recovering emotionally from what has been an unbelievable 2020, and I hope that you're feeling strong and energetic. Seriously - could you write a script that would ever be so...
Read MoreWelcome to the Casino!
Greetings! I hope that your Summer is going wonderfully well and that you and your's are feeling clear-minded, and strong and healthy despite the challenges brought on by the Covid-19 virus, the shutdowns, the lockdowns, the senseless...
Read MoreThe bond markets are temporarily broken
Greetings! I hope that you and your's are faring well despite the incredible, Orwellian times we're living through with this virus scare. I am no virologist so I'll not weigh in on predictions about the potential severity of the virus...
Read MoreGood bonds sometimes have more fun (Go back and read December Insights)
Good morning / afternoon. I hope that the end of winter – beginning of Spring season is going well for you and your’s. This will be a short and sweet edition of Insights. If you want in-depth analysis, go back and read the...
Read MoreDon't let the cheerleaders drown out the credit market signals
Season's Greetings! I hope that you and your's had a wonderful Thanksgiving! It's almost Christmas now (hard to believe how fast 2019 flew by, right?) !!! Let's get some laughs in before we get to the nerdy, analytical stuff. FOUR...
Read MoreFrom Order to Chaos
Greetings! I hope that your spring and summer have gone well in 2019, and that it's been a healthy and prosperous year so far! Well, well, well... where to start, eh? Economic War The older I get, the more importance I place upon one...
Read MoreDeleveraging 2.0: American-style
Greetings! I sure hope that your Holidays went splendidly well and that your winter 2019 is going great. You know, with the colder temperatures, bluer skies and leaves off of the trees: runs & hikes (and time in the snow if you've got...
Read MoreHiking & working out with the right weights
Hiking for most of us Hiking is such a wonderful exercise whether you're carrying a large backpack and you're out for several days overnight or even if you're just out for a brief, leisurely day hike. When I first started backpacking...
Read MoreMore inflation...then Deflationary BUST...?...
"If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exactly what the world's central bankers have been doing the last six years." Stanley Druckenmiller, May 3, 2018 - 2018 Alexander Hamilton Awards at the Manhattan Institute I...
Read MorePick Some Things and Sell Them 3.0
Last quarter’s Insights, was titled “Pick Something and Sell It”. It was version 1.0. So why would I call this quarter’s 3.0 having not published 2.0? It felt appropriate to title it that, because this is the...
Read MorePick something & Sell it
Overview Last quarter, in my Insights piece, I wrote that Yellen and the Fed were fighting asset bubbles. I also said that I don't think the Fed will make it to 3% as a terminus on the Fed Funds rate by 2019, because we're towards the...
Read MoreThe Fed is fighting asset bubbles. Period. Recession to bring longer term U.S. yields lower
"Prices of risky assets have increased The Fed may (Scott Minerd)
Read MoreDangerous Freedom
Greetings! It’s been an interesting time YTD in 2017. 2016 represented a strong performance for the bonds in our portfolios of generally anywhere from +9-16% (net of fees), depending on your investment time period calculus. Our...
Read More2017: What should pre-retiree & retiree investors do?
2017: What should pre-retiree & retiree investors do? Answer: Understand roughly where we are in the business cycle, fade the financial news noise and seek where value (not so-uber-expensive), opportunities may lie. “The current...
Read MoreComing out of the coping rooms or putting the pom-poms away and using our brains
Coming out of the coping rooms or putting the pom-poms away and using our brains Since the last Insights (end of Sep) Well, well, well. The regular, working people in rural America went to the polls this year and surprised everyone -...
Read MoreSaver Prison, Debtor Club Med & Helicopter Money 2017-2018
Saver Prison and Debtor Club Med – and next on the agenda: Helicopter Money 2017-2018 What the heck does that mean? Is this another example of cryptic, nerdy, investment advisory vernacular? Maybe. Let me explain after I give a...
Read MoreGlobal Capital Market Mutation
For some illnesses, having a mutation in one specific gene usually – but not always – causes disease. “While America, at least on the surface, was the envy of the world for its apparent success and prosperity, the...
Read MoreReflation X & Earnings Concerns
Reflation X and Earnings concerns Nope – it’s not a demographic category. It’s not a new Tesla model. It’s not a pharmaceutical drug that Valeant paid $3 Billion for (with debt). It’s “Reflation X” – a newer, more advanced, monetary...
Read MoreThe Fed FINALLY raised rates! Yes!!!
The Fed FINALLY raised rates! Yes! (I had to include the image of the baby fist-pumping! I mean how funny is that?) Since the July-August 2012 timeframe, asset prices have become so distorted due to ZIRP (zero interest rate policy),...
Read MoreToo Much Debt Not Enough Growth
The dark line represents the parabolic rise in debt in each respective area and the lighter line represents that area's corresponding cumulative GDP growth from 1993-2014.MarketsWow. What a bumpy ride since July, eh? Let's maybe start...
Read MoreLiving In A "Gambling Society"
Those are Larry Fink’s words, not mine ("gambling society"). Larry is the Founder, Chairman and CEO of Blackrock, the largest asset manager in the world. Larry wrote a letter to each of the leaders of the S&P 500 companies in April of...
Read MoreStaying Out of the Doghouse During the Age of Releveraging
Staying out of the doghouse during the Age of Releveraging• “There’s a bubble in the confidence that the Federal Reserve can get us all out of this without adverse consequences.” Doug Kass – December 2014...
Read MoreBrace for Risk in 2015 - January 16, 2015
Brace for Risk in 2015Happy New Year! My sincere hope is that you and your family and friends had a wonderful Holiday and New Year. “The future ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi BerraBrace verbMake (a structure)...
Read MoreTraffic Lights
“Riches don’t make a man rich, they only make him busier” Christopher Columbus “Standing in the middle of the road is very dangerous; you get knocked down by the traffic from both sides.” - Margaret ThatcherI love that quote because I...
Read MoreThe Great Normalization
What does “normal” mean when it comes to stock and bond market returns? All over the globe, we are seeing more military tension, economic disputes and regional conflicts than at any time since the Cold War. The rising trend...
Read MoreHistory rhymes - credit markets are overheating (big time)
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Mark TwainSince around August 2012, I’ve seen low quality bond prices continue to accelerate (and thus yields decline), in a fashion that I’ve never seen before. Managing credit...
Read MoreShouldn't we talk about the weather? Da!
"Shouldn't we talk about the weather...?...shouldn't we talk about the government...?..." Michael Stipe - lead singer of Athens, Ga., band, R.E.M.The recent, brutal, winter weather that we've had along the eastern seaboard (and...
Read MoreThe Chronicles of Reflation - Behind the iCurve 4.0
Happy New Year!I sincerely hope that you and yours had a wonderful holiday season and that your 2014 is going very well."Economists have a tendency to take the most recent experience [disinflation / deflation], and extrapolate it into...
Read MoreThe Chronicles of Reflation (IIb Special Update); "Change is such hard work"
"Change is such hard work." Billy Crystal"Change brings opportunity." Nido QubeinKeep it shortSince my wife likes to describe my garrulous verbal communication techniques this way: "Why use 10 words when 200 ought to do", I'm going to...
Read MoreThe Chronicles of Reflation IIa (mid-report Special Update)...
Being Right as Rain vs Mostly Right"Criticism, like rain, should be gentle enough to nourish a man's growth without destroying his roots." Frank Howard ClarkI sincerely hope that you and yours are doing exceedingly well.I wanted to...
Read MoreThe Chronicles of Reflation (Part II)
"Preserve sound judgment and discernment, do not let them out of your sight; they will be life for you, an ornament to grace your neck. Then you will go on your way in safety, and your foot will not stumble." - Proverbs 3:21-23 Come on...
Read MoreThe Chronicles of Reflation (Part I)
Happy Spring!"Break open a cherry tree and there are no flowers, but the spring breeze brings forth myriad blossoms." - Ikkyu Sojun I sincerely hope that you and yours are enjoying the beauty of the season. Thank you so much for your...
Read MoreA Sense of Peace - CVN-77
Greetings! And Happy Fall! And Happy Veterans' Day! I apologize for the "seventh inning stretch", since the last quarterly Insights publication (end of June). The Europeans have held 14 “emergency” summits in the last 21 months, and...
Read More2011-2015 The Fork in the Road
Greetings! LifeI hope that all is well in your life and that you are finding satisfaction in it. The wise King Solomon once wrote, "A person can do nothing better than to eat and drink and find satisfaction in their work." I hope that...
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